Integrated_Annual_Report_2026 - Flipbook - Page 44
INTRODUCTION
SASOL AT A
GLANCE
DRIVING SUSTAINABLE
VALUE CREATION
EXECUTING
STRATEGY
DELIVERING
BUSINESS VALUE
SUMMARISED FINANCIAL
PERFORMANCE
CORPORATE
GOVERNANCE
SUSTAINABILITY
REPORT
REMUNERATION
REPORT
ASSURANCE/
ADMINISTRATION
STRATEGY CONTINUED
Resilience of Sasol’s portfolio
The current context is defined by continued
Scenario updates
global growth under heightened fragility,
Sasol updates its global and South African scenarios annually to reflect changes in the external
environment and to test the resilience of its strategy. The scenarios draw on external scenario sets,
market intelligence, internal modelling and expert insights, providing a balanced but challenging
view of possible futures. They support strategy development, risk identification, opportunity
assessment and decision-making.
with geopolitical and policy uncertainty
a feature of the operating environment.
Global GDP growth remains positive but
below historical averages, supported
by technology investment and easing
inflation, while constrained by trade friction,
elevated debt levels and limited fiscal
space. Macroeconomic volatility persists
SIGNPOSTS
Scenarios are not predictions. They are alternative but plausible futures used to understand
uncertainty, strengthen strategic resilience and inform decision-making. They are most useful when
considered together, as elements of different scenarios may emerge simultaneously. Although this
writeup reflects a climate and emissions bias, which is important for Sasol, the underlying scenarios
cover a wider range of issues including geopolitics, regulation, consumer responses, technology
advances and market conditions.
resilience and balance sheet strength pure
growth exposure.
Scenario 1
Geopolitics has shifted from episodic disruption to
structural fragmentation. Strategic rivalry – particularly
between the US and China – continues to reshape
trade, technology and industrial policy. Ongoing
conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East sustain
energy price volatility and expose the sensitivity of
inflation, logistics and supply chains to political shocks.
Governments increasingly treat trade, energy and
technology as national security instruments rather
than efficiency-driven systems.
CURRENT
PATHWAY
(TEMPERATURE
INCREASE
2 – 3°C)
Technology – especially artificial intelligence (AI)
– is the strongest accelerating force. AI drives a
semiconductor super cycle, data centre expansion and
rising power demand, linking digital competitiveness
directly to energy system resilience.
• Global trade restrictions and
tariffs; intra bloc trade versus
cross-block trade
• Frequency of Regulatory and
policy changes including RED
II, flexible allocation, carbon
border tax design
• Global and South African
rather than recessionary collapse, making
Global trade remains resilient but is re-routed rather
than liberalised. Industrial policy has overtaken free
trade as the organising principle, with subsidies, tariffs,
local content rules and carbon border measures
shaping capital allocation. Supply chains are
shortening and realigning via “connector economies”
such as the association of South East Asian nations
(ASEAN), India and Mexico, while carbon intensive and
trade exposed sectors face rising regulatory and cost
pressures.
Signposts to monitor activity
in each of the scenarios
include:
The Current Pathway reflects a world in which the energy
transition continues, but at a measured and uneven pace.
Global economic growth stabilises at around 3%, supported
by a gradual normalisation of commodity cycles, although
periodic volatility remains a persistent feature of markets. Policy
ambition advances incrementally, and while technology adoption
continues, it does not accelerate to its full potential due to
affordability, infrastructure, and coordination constraints. Fossil
fuels remain a significant part of the global energy mix for longer,
with transition pressures building steadily rather than abruptly.
Overall, this scenario represents a pragmatic continuation of
current trends, characterised by ongoing uncertainty, episodic
shocks, geopolitical tensions, and sustained adaptation spending
as global warming progresses.
carbon regulation including
carbon tax recycling and carbon
budget
• Macroeconomic drivers
such as oil price, rand/dollar
exchange rate, inflation,
economic growth, product
prices, feedstock price,
upstream investment, ethaneethylene price spreads, South
Africa GDP/capita
• Electricity growth versus GDP
growth and renewables energy
spend versus grid spend
• Sustainability strategy and
associated costs of investment
required
• The pace of technology
Scenario 2
FRAGMENTED
WORLD
(TEMPERATURE
INCREASE >3°C)
Higher tariffs, increased conflicts and tensions – result
heightened uncertainty and a more fragmented global economy.
New geographic trade relationships raise security of supply
concerns for energy, commodities and components, increasing
the cost of minerals and metals key to the energy transition,
further increasing affordability challenges.
Adaptation costs are significant, related to more frequent and
extreme weather events.
SASOL INTEGRATED REPORT 2026
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development
• Financing and funding trends
and requirements
• Align transition pace with
customer needs
