Integrated_Annual_Report_2026 - Flipbook - Page 45
INTRODUCTION
SASOL AT A
GLANCE
DRIVING SUSTAINABLE
VALUE CREATION
EXECUTING
STRATEGY
DELIVERING
BUSINESS VALUE
SUMMARISED FINANCIAL
PERFORMANCE
CORPORATE
GOVERNANCE
SUSTAINABILITY
REPORT
REMUNERATION
REPORT
ASSURANCE/
ADMINISTRATION
STRATEGY CONTINUED
Quantitative robustness testing of the strategy to FY30
Scenario 3
COOPERATIVE
WORLD
(TEMPERATURE
INCREASE
1,5 – 2°C)
Scenario 4
NET ZERO
WORLD
(TEMPERATURE
INCREASE ~1,5°C)
Scenarios are used to test the robustness of our strategy, both qualitatively and
quantitatively, to assist in identifying potential risks and opportunities as well as to
improve overall strategic resilience. The result of the robustness testing assists
in shaping the Sasol of the future strategy and in identifying possible risks to the
strategy. Sasol is actively monitoring opportunities for further value creation into
the future.
In the Cooperative World, strong multilateral cooperation underpins faster
progress on both climate action and economic development. Governments
align policy frameworks, trade barriers are reduced, and technology sharing
accelerates innovation and deployment across regions. The energy transition
advances more rapidly, supported by lower market volatility and clearer
policy signals, enabling capital to flow into low-carbon solutions with greater
confidence. Fossil fuel demand declines more quickly, while petrochemical
demand comes under increasing pressure from higher recycling rates,
circularity, and improved material efficiency. Overall, this scenario is defined
by greater system efficiency, faster technology diffusion, and a more
predictable operating environment—albeit with structural pressure on
traditional hydrocarbon-based activities. Adaptation costs are moderated
as the system transitions away from fossil-based feedstocks.
The testing process involves developing price assumptions for each product
and feedstock under each scenario, including oil, refined products, natural gas,
chemicals and US ethane. These price assumptions, together with the outcomes of
the financial modelling, are reviewed and approved by the Sasol Group Assumptions
Committee. Through Group Finance, a detailed financial modelling exercise is then
undertaken to test financial robustness through to FY30, using Earnings Before
Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA) as the key metric. The
modelling outcomes are subsequently signed off by the Assumptions Committee
and used to inform decision-making.
The Net Zero World assumes a strong and coordinated global commitment
to limiting warming to 1,5°C, supported by stringent policies, carbon pricing
mechanisms, and penalties for emissions-intensive activities. Decarbonisation
accelerates rapidly across all sectors, leading to a sharp decline in fossil
fuel demand. Low-carbon technologies—including renewable power, green
hydrogen, and circular business models—scale quickly as capital is redirected
toward sustainable systems. While this scenario delivers the most decisive
climate outcome and the lowest long-term adaptation costs, it is currently less
probable given geopolitical and economic realities. Nevertheless, it remains a
critical reference case for stress-testing strategies, investments, and resilience
under conditions of rapid and potentially disruptive transition.
The graph below shows the outcome of the qualitative robustness test. The line
indicates the indexed FY26 EBITDA in the Current Pathway at an index of 100.
This is compared to the indexed values in the scenarios in FY30 relative to the 100
index line. The comparison in the different scenarios is dependent on the relative oil
price and feedstock cost variations. Despite varying scenarios, Sasol employs an
agile process that proactively adjusts and shapes its strategy, enhancing resilience
by capitalising on new, sustainable growth opportunities.
EBITDA and oil price index in 2030
Current Pathway
Fragmented World
Earnings (ZAR bil) in real terms FY26
SASOL INTEGRATED REPORT 2026
44
Cooperative World
Net-Zero World
Oil price ($/bbl) in real terms FY26
